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Investing in Argentina and Argentina Stocks

Discusses *smart* ways of investing in Argentina, primarily thru ADRs on NYSE and NASDAQ. Covers companies like Grupo Galicia, GGAL, Banco Frances, BFR, IRSA(the biggest Real Estate Company in Argentina) IRS, Tenaris (TS), etc. UPDATED SEVERAL TIMES A MONTH.

Monday, October 02, 2006

Going on Standby/Hold mode on Argentine stocks

Argentina is getting better, but too slow. These guys seem to still believe that they know it all, that they dont need help from the rest of the world in running their businesses. They actively reject the collective knowledge of the rest of the world because of their over-inflated egos STILL believing that Argentina is the center of the world. They don't really realize that Argentina is a nobody in the world. Politically, economically, socially, culturally-this is one land of soccer and tennis players and tango dancers-a bunch of showmen who don't create wealth for the common Argentine people. The result-Buenos Aires doesn't even figure in the top 10 most expensive cities in Latin America. Even Monterrey, Mexico is more expensive than Buenos Aires.

The Argentine ego will break. In the end they are driving themselves so poor (or in other words, the world keeps moving ahead, and they are just stuck in the mud) that eventually another mini-crisis might wake these people to the learning process which they need to embrace to come up in the world. I saw that with India in 1991-the closed socialist economy gave way to capitalism; and the Indian standard of living has been improving ever since.

I do not see that happening in Argentina right now. In how long? Maybe another 3-10 years. But as a stock market investor/trader-that is dead money for a while. And worse, they may need another crisis to wake up, which won't be fun for Argentine markets.

For now, I am in a wait and see attitude to what the Government and the private industry does with the country.

Sanjay John G.

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Hap said...

IRS has moved up steadily.

4:57 PM  
Anonymous said...

So I August you are bullish and in October you are standing aside?

12:44 PM  
Sanjay John G. said...

I am a trader. I am not a cheerleader or a buy and hold forever guy. When I see the odds are better on another table, I shift there.

Argentina remains a good country to invest-but the changes are too slow to come. Once they do realize that they need to really become much more efficient that what they are right now (and put their ego aside) it will be great for everyone-for the Argentine people, for investors, and for the Government. There is a little improvement in Argentine sentiment over the last couple of years, but after having been in touch with this country over the last 5 years, I am surprised that they still believe they are the best country in the world. Until that breaks, returns on monies invested in this country will be moderate.

When it does start to go up, it will be with a vengeance-and there will be plenty of dips to get in. I am watching this market closely; I need to see fundamental shifts in Argentine psychology before putting decent amounts of cash in this country.

For now, China and India are better markets. Brazil is good. China can be played by FXI, and India by banks called IBN and HDB.

Sanjay John G.

6:12 PM  
Hap said...

I heard TATA auto India.It was suggested,ran and profit taking,as did whole India Market.Now may be ready to move again.
Thanks for your ideas.
Have more than doubled in TOMO Chinese wireless and after pullback it has moved up.

4:04 AM  
vijaya said...

I fallowed your picks on Argentina for several months and worked out very well.

11:27 AM  

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